Statistics Canada 2011 census data released this morning shows Thompson's population dropped by 4.6 per cent - or 617 people - between 2006 and 2011, leaving the "Hub City" or "Nickel City" with just 12,829 residents.
Steinbach, with a population now of 13,524, replaces Thompson as the third-largest city in Manitoba - the first time Thompson hasn't been the third largest since 1971.
Steinbach was the fastest-growing city in the province over the last five years with a growth rate of 22.2 per cent and a 2011 population of 13,524.
Steinbach Mayor Chris Goertzen had been saying for months Steinbach is bigger than Thompson. He was reported as saying in a Winnipeg Free Press story last Oct. 17 that "Steinbach recently became Manitoba's third-largest city with a population of about 13,500, surpassing Thompson." Tara Newton, a demographics and census statistician with the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics in Winnipeg, told the Thompson Citizen last Oct. 26, "The Wikipedia page for the City of Steinbach lists an un-sourced population estimate, supposedly for 2010, of 13,500 people. This would correspond to the number the mayor quoted."
Newton said today Thompson's population, according to Statistics Canada census data, peaked at 19,001 in 1971. By 1976, the population had dropped to 17,291. In 1981, the population continued to plunge downward to 14,288. The 1986 population was 14,701; in 1991 it was 14,977; in 1996 it was 14,385; and in 2001 it was 13,256.
Because municipal boundaries have changed over the years, as well as the incorporated statuses of various communities, it is virtually impossible to make direct apple-to-apple population comparisons prior to 1971 for the first 15 years of Thompson's existence. Thompson, originally a townsite within the newly-created 975-square-mile Local Government District (LGD) of Mystery Lake, within the Dauphin Judicial District, from 1956 to 1966, became a town on Jan. 3, 1967 and a city just 3 1/2 years later on July 7, 1970. Archival records of the Nickel Belt News from March 1961 estimate Thompson's population at 3,800 that year.
Thompson Mayor Tim Johnston, first elected as mayor in October 2006, five months after the May 2006 census, which showed Thompson with 13,446 residents, said this morning he knows he's going to be "hammered" on the population drop in Thompson.
Johnston said he wants Thompson to be the "third most influential city in Manitoba," not necessarily the "third largest," although he acknowledged the population numbers are in no way good news for Thompson.
Johnston said he will be interested in seeing demographic breakdowns in the months ahead showing whether the region as a whole grew or contracted and what the population decline will mean in terms of the percentage of the population in Thompson of aboriginal descent and what the ages were of the 617 people who left: "Were they 60 or 20?" Johnston wonders, as the former would point to retirees making their exit, which is not so surprising, versus 20-year-olds, which would be worrying, he said.
Vale's Manitoba Operations will close its smelter and refinery in 2015, with a net loss of perhaps 250 jobs, although no one has confirmed that, making any projection of population growth over the period from May 2011 to May 2016 somewhere between speculative at best to little more than wishful thinking.
Thompson is competing with Dauphin in the hopes of the province picking it as the site for a new jail, which the province needs but may or may not be interested in building. The idea of a primarily aboriginal 220-prisoner restorative justice facility comes out of the Thompson Economic Diversification Working Group (TEDWG). Toronto-based consultants rePlan have been hired by Vale to work with TEDWG in finding a way forward in developing perhaps five to seven options to broaden and diversify the economic base in Thompson and surrounding region in light of the refinery and smelter closure.
The chances of a 220-prisoner restorative justice facility on its own making up for 250 Vale jobs and a $32.5-million payroll hit are, of course, slim to none.
Thompson also took several hits on the retail front last year, as well as topping Statistics Canada's annual Juristat Crime Severity Index Violent Crime Severity Index last July. While the loss of both our video stores, with Blockbuster closing its doors in September and Rogers Plus in December, are considered an inconvenience for consumers they are a small hit on the retail scene overall, compared to the loss of the 15,000-foot-plus Staples, which is very different; it was simply a corporate decision to pull out of the Thompson bricks-and-mortar market after five years.
Debra MacDonald, Staples' Winnipeg-based regional vice-president for Central Canada, told the Thompson Citizen last Sept. 16 Staples did not consider leasing at any another location in Thompson once its initial five-year lease expired. It opened at 69 Thompson Dr. N. to great fanfare on Saturday, Jan. 27, 2007, replacing the vacant Surplus Army, Airforce, Navy (SAAN) store in the location. Staples itself, as a corporate entity, is financially quite healthy and profitable. Office supplies are seen as a solid indicator of underlying business trends, and Staple's retail in North America is doing quite well in a competitive landscape.
As a result of the latest numbers from last May's census, Thompson has tumbled from third spot - behind Brandon and Winnipeg - to fifth-largest city in Manitoba.
According to the Burntwood Regional Health Authority's annual report for 2010-2011, released last November, the total population for the region is 46,818 and 76 per cent of the residents of the entire region are of aboriginal descent.
On Feb. 26, 2010, Statistics Canada released its 2006 Aboriginal Population Profile for Thompson, showing "the census agglomeration of Thompson, with 4,930 aboriginal people, had the largest proportion of aboriginal people of any city in Canada in 2006. More than one in three (36 per cent) people in Thompson were aboriginal. Between 2001 and 2006, the aboriginal population in Thompson grew by nine per cent, from 4,520 to 4,930 people. The First Nations population of Thompson grew by 13 per cent over this time period, while the Métis population grew by 10 per cent.
"In 2006, 3,300 persons living in Thompson identified as First Nations, accounting for two-thirds (67 per cent) of the city's aboriginal population. Another 1,520 identified as Métis. The Métis population accounted for nearly a third (31 per cent) of aboriginal people while Inuit accounted for one percent. Another one per cent reported multiple or other aboriginal responses. Of those who identified as First Nations people in 2006, a large majority (93 per cent) reported being a Treaty Indian or a registered Indian as defined by the Indian Act of Canada. The aboriginal population living in Thompson is much younger than the non-aboriginal population. In 2006, the median age of the aboriginal population in Thompson was 21 years, compared to 35 years for the non-aboriginal population."
Thompson was a bad news story in what was generally a good news day for most of Manitoba in the 2011 Statistics Canada census numbers.
Entrepreneurship, Training and Trade Minister Peter Bjornson said the new census information released today by Statistics Canada shows Manitoba's population growth between 2001 and 2006 increased by more than double that of the previous five-year period. "This kind of growth hasn't been seen since 1961," said Bjornson. "More and more people are making our growing province their home."
* Manitoba's population reached 1,208,268 people in May 2011, an increase of 5.2 per cent from 2006. Manitoba ranked fifth in population growth compared with other provinces;
* Growth between 2006 and 2011 of 5.2 per cent was more than twice the growth of 2.6 per cent between 2001 and 2006. The 5.2 per cent growth during the last five years was the fastest growth since 1961;
* Manitoba's growth of 5.2 per cent includes 5.2 per cent growth in cities, 6.4 per cent in towns;
* 4.1 per cent in villages, 4.1 per cent in rural municipalities and 11.6 per cent in First Nation communities.
Saskatchewan had a strong increase in the growth of its population, going from 1.1 per cent between 2001 and 2006 to 6.7 per cent between 2006 and 2011. The rate of population growth has doubled in Yukon and Manitoba since 2006.
On May 10, 2011, 33,476,688 people were enumerated in the census.
